received 13.12.08 1357 GMT
We are about 3 hours into the start of leg 3. Right now the entire fleet is sailing due south along the west coast of India. We are currently enjoying a very nice westerly sea breeze. We are flying our A4, big downwind sail and cruising along nicely at 10 knots of boatspeed in 9 to 11 knots of wind. This wind won't last forever. I expect the wind to die in about 2 hours...we will most likely come to a complete stop. Wind is coming however. The winter Monsoon wind, and its northeast gradient should come to save us and propel us along to the south once again.
Volvo has place an exclusion zone around the south coast of Sri Lanka. There is a gang of pirates that occupy the region of the exclusion zone. Apparently, they even have their own 'air force'. In an effort to avoid starting a 'turf war', the race will pass to the south of a line of virtual marks that will give us a safe distance between ‘the bad guys’ and us.
Once we pass the landmasses of India and Sri Lanka we will be able to head east across the Bay of Bengal. The northeast Monsoon winds will still be our driving weather pattern through this 1000-mile stretch of open ocean. Sailing mostly on port tack, at maximum upwind angles we will have a couple strategic decisions to make during this section of the course.
To the north of our track is more wind. To the south, a light and shifty convergence zone that is full of clouds, rain and not much wind. However because of the mechanical forces that propel the boat through the water, going south is quite easy, going north is very difficult. We can reach a bit, to sail faster, but we will be flirting with being swallowed up in the convergence zone. While sailing to the north seems like the obvious choice, we can only sail so close to the wind, so getting to the windier areas might be costly if we have to sail in full 'upwind mode'. It will be very costly if we have to tack to starboard to get more wind....we'll all just have to wait and see what micro weather systems exist when we turn east.
The last 600 miles of the race will be incredibly tricky as we sail down the Malacca Straights- the waterway between Sumatra and Malaysia. This is a narrow strip of water that is full of fishing boats, fishing nets, commercial shipping, more fishing nets, and, yes, more pirates. But this is also an area of very little wind and an opposing current. This section of the race is bound to be incredibly difficult.
If we are lucky, we will be in Singapore by Christmas. For the past couple days, all the wives and girlfriends of my teammates have asked me if my forecasting models will get us to Singapore in time for Christmas... I didn't have the heart to tell them directly what I was thinking. The truth is, I don't care when we get to Singapore. All I want for Christmas this year is a podium finish.
Matt Gregory - Navigator
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